Table of Contents

Capacity

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Capacity (GW)
tech 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
Nuclear 100.94 102.09 98.36 99.62 98.57 97.18 97.18 97.18 97.18 97.18 95.06 89.85 77.36 68.14 60.31 57.50 50.90 43.06 26.35 13.86 7.98
Coal Old Unscrubbed 104.57 92.68 98.68 24.55 20.12 18.35 10.08 8.70 8.49 7.22 5.31 4.98 3.67 3.43 3.17 2.83 2.38 1.83 0.91 0.91 0.89
Coal Old Scrubbed 186.55 186.54 170.55 224.88 218.44 216.64 208.11 205.85 204.16 200.35 192.82 187.77 182.16 178.78 175.25 171.49 162.93 150.60 132.22 109.86 92.47
Cofire Old 0.55 0.45 0.87 0.62 0.56 0.56 0.50 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.25 0.25
Cofire New 0.08 0.08 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69
Coal-New 17.89 24.21 24.68 24.68 24.68 24.68 24.68 24.68 24.65 24.65 24.65 24.65 24.63 24.61 24.61 24.57 24.54 24.54 24.54 24.54 24.54
Coal-IGCC 0.49 0.49 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
Coal-CCS 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59
Oil-Gas-Steam 107.04 98.93 93.00 92.88 75.77 69.28 63.50 57.16 47.08 38.18 24.66 18.11 13.22 7.86 7.26 7.24 7.19 7.11 7.02 6.25 6.18
Gas-CC 206.59 221.57 234.10 243.48 258.76 259.75 259.73 259.73 261.76 276.98 302.57 322.52 341.32 364.39 378.06 392.65 412.41 437.33 469.89 499.93 517.48
Gas-CT 135.85 142.64 145.08 144.31 143.44 144.47 143.39 141.76 144.04 146.84 154.37 166.72 184.46 196.76 214.58 223.64 234.55 241.39 253.56 271.17 287.21
Hydro 75.87 75.96 76.29 77.42 78.85 79.44 79.44 79.47 79.87 80.13 80.16 80.24 80.27 80.31 80.42 80.43 80.77 80.80 81.09 81.10 81.10
Geothermal 2.49 2.63 2.63 2.68 2.87 3.10 3.14 3.48 3.60 3.92 4.11 4.30 4.37 4.62 4.69 4.76 4.76 4.87 4.94 5.33 5.92
Biopower 3.66 3.83 4.18 4.19 4.15 4.15 4.15 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.09 4.09 4.09 4.09 4.09
Landfill-gas 3.25 3.48 3.65 3.68 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.68 3.68 3.68 3.68 3.68 3.68 3.68 3.68 3.66 3.64 3.62 3.61 3.57 3.53
Land-based Wind 39.72 58.30 64.89 82.38 110.41 146.21 146.76 146.50 144.44 142.60 139.30 129.00 122.64 115.30 117.72 119.65 120.38 126.01 151.02 172.63 194.22
CSP 0.48 0.55 1.71 1.82 1.83 1.83 1.83 1.83 1.83 1.83 2.69 2.69 2.69 2.69 2.69 2.69 2.62 1.46 1.35 1.85 1.86
PV (AC) 0.70 3.30 9.11 17.49 19.50 25.90 31.53 44.39 51.98 59.33 64.03 66.52 71.94 78.66 88.50 101.59 114.55 131.14 155.02 199.47 259.96
Distributed PV (AC) 1.04 3.70 6.75 11.67 19.08 28.87 36.05 43.87 53.92 64.92 77.22 88.47 101.27 114.67 128.68 143.21 155.92 166.67 177.86 188.02 197.78
Storage 22.24 22.24 22.24 22.24 22.24 22.24 22.24 22.27 22.28 22.35 22.48 22.49 22.49 22.49 22.52 22.55 22.56 22.56 22.68 22.76 22.82

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Retirements (GW)
tech 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
Nuclear 4.27 3.25 3.59 2.12 5.22 12.49 9.22 7.83 2.81 6.59 7.84 16.71 12.49 5.88
Coal Old Unscrubbed 3.83 11.89 9.14 17.63 4.43 1.78 8.27 1.38 0.21 1.27 1.91 0.33 1.31 0.24 0.26 0.34 0.45 0.55 0.93 0.02
Coal Old Scrubbed 0.01 0.41 2.16 6.45 1.80 8.53 2.26 1.69 3.81 7.53 5.05 5.61 3.38 3.53 3.77 8.55 12.34 18.38 22.36 17.39
Cofire Old 0.11 0.03 0.25 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.09 0.11 0.07
Coal-New 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.02
Oil-Gas-Steam 8.83 8.49 7.86 3.92 17.12 6.49 5.78 6.34 10.07 8.90 13.52 6.56 4.88 5.36 0.60 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.76 0.07
Gas-CC 0.41 0.05 0.49 0.13 0.61 0.08 0.02 0.03 1.55 1.82 0.28 0.31 0.84 0.46 2.82 1.93 4.85 6.08 7.66
Gas-CT 1.63 1.98 1.61 4.37 1.08 1.11 1.08 2.50 4.34 6.75 6.20 1.87 1.93 1.03 0.39 0.97 0.99 2.36 2.66 3.14 5.67
Geothermal 0.15 0.05 0.19 0.23
Biopower 0.04 0.11 0.07 0.12 0.04 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00
Landfill-gas 0.04 0.07 0.02 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.03
Land-based Wind 0.26 0.16 0.26 0.08 0.05 0.06 0.17 0.86 2.12 2.01 4.74 14.27 14.27 18.73 6.85 17.58 28.08 35.87 0.72 0.60 0.06
CSP 0.07 1.16 0.11 0.00
PV (AC) 2.60 5.82 8.38 2.01 6.41
Distributed PV (AC) 1.04 2.66 3.05 4.92 7.40 9.79
Rebuilds (GW)
tech 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
Geothermal 0.08 0.05 0.18 0.14
Land-based Wind 0.40 0.20 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.01 0.08 0.06 0.18 0.74 3.78 7.17 10.45 8.46 19.47 26.56 37.82 8.31 2.79 3.77
PV (AC) 1.92 5.23 6.47 2.43 5.94
Distributed PV (AC) 1.04 2.66 3.05 4.92 7.40 9.79
Upgrades (GW)
techold technew 2014 2016 2018 2024 2042 TOTAL
CoalOldScr CofireOld 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.47
CoalOldUns CoalOldScr 56.49 56.49
coal-new CofireNew 0.61 0.61
Capacity degradation (GW)
tech type 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
Geothermal Nominal 2.49 2.63 2.63 2.68 2.87 3.10 3.14 3.48 3.60 3.92 4.11 4.30 4.37 4.62 4.69 4.76 4.76 4.87 4.94 5.33 5.92
Geothermal Operational 2.49 2.63 2.63 2.68 2.87 3.10 3.14 3.48 3.60 3.92 4.11 4.30 4.37 4.62 4.69 4.76 4.76 4.87 4.94 5.33 5.92
PV (AC) Nominal 0.70 3.30 9.11 17.49 19.50 25.90 31.53 44.39 51.98 59.33 64.03 66.52 71.94 78.66 88.50 101.59 114.55 131.14 155.02 199.47 259.96
PV (AC) Operational 0.69 3.28 9.07 17.35 19.19 25.40 30.77 43.33 50.49 57.33 61.46 63.34 68.12 74.16 83.27 95.52 107.90 124.22 148.03 191.29 250.76
Distributed PV (AC) Nominal 1.04 3.70 6.75 11.67 19.08 28.87 36.05 43.87 53.92 64.92 77.22 88.47 101.27 114.67 128.68 143.21 155.92 166.67 177.86 188.02 197.78
Distributed PV (AC) Operational 1.04 3.69 6.70 11.56 18.85 28.45 35.35 42.81 52.44 62.92 74.59 85.09 97.05 109.48 122.40 135.85 147.58 157.28 167.59 177.11 186.47

Generation

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Generation at busbar (TWh)
tech 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
Nuclear 797.90 803.26 777.51 787.49 779.17 768.20 768.20 768.20 768.20 768.20 751.46 710.23 611.51 538.64 476.74 454.50 402.39 340.40 208.32 109.57 63.08
Coal Old Unscrubbed 564.33 371.25 358.95 35.86 45.29 47.18 38.79 42.86 42.73 37.84 28.39 27.69 21.21 20.69 18.57 17.49 16.10 13.00 6.50 6.45 6.31
Coal Old Scrubbed 1193.70 962.11 1018.74 877.50 1026.42 1112.37 1152.21 1251.98 1238.38 1214.07 1197.44 1200.07 1209.62 1213.66 1192.42 1176.94 1143.18 1074.27 955.26 790.24 659.61
Cofire Old 3.28 0.88 4.07 1.56 2.01 2.26 1.91 2.57 2.25 2.16 2.19 2.40 2.42 2.40 2.42 1.87 1.87 1.93 1.89 1.50 1.50
Cofire New 0.62 0.09 4.44 4.38 4.63 4.92 4.92 4.62 4.62 4.62 4.62 4.62 4.63 4.54 4.54 4.54 4.58 4.58 4.58 4.57 4.57
Coal-New 132.60 139.37 182.87 182.10 182.56 182.89 182.93 182.91 182.66 182.67 182.66 182.66 182.53 182.39 182.39 182.06 181.88 181.87 181.87 181.86 181.63
Coal-IGCC 3.50 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89
Coal-CCS 3.19 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21
Oil-Gas-Steam 17.92 9.86 10.04 7.42 6.44 3.49 1.62 1.02 2.53 0.05
Gas-CC 810.97 1061.05 1022.49 1348.26 1131.57 933.82 937.66 867.75 905.31 959.35 1023.11 1112.25 1254.65 1374.10 1496.76 1566.54 1677.10 1809.27 1988.45 2149.51 2198.18
Gas-CT 6.22 6.04 5.29 5.69 5.54 5.71 5.92 6.15 6.77 7.70 6.09 5.84 6.27 6.53 7.57 8.32 9.10 9.77 10.85 13.20 14.88
Hydro 266.70 297.59 265.16 276.77 282.46 284.44 284.44 284.58 286.05 286.90 286.98 287.30 287.43 287.60 288.09 288.14 289.95 290.07 290.96 291.01 291.01
Canadian Imports 25.70 46.98 46.37 48.57 38.03 37.25 40.31 42.97 49.83 49.99 50.09 50.32 49.92 48.53 48.11 47.75 47.75 47.75 47.75 47.75 47.75
Geothermal 18.52 19.61 19.61 19.99 21.40 23.11 23.41 25.92 26.77 29.15 30.59 32.03 32.53 34.43 34.93 35.43 35.42 36.29 36.76 39.63 44.09
Biopower 24.01 23.22 26.76 26.56 26.59 27.61 28.44 28.67 28.98 29.06 29.12 29.13 29.14 29.30 29.29 29.31 29.32 29.33 29.33 29.27 29.27
Landfill-gas 14.90 15.75 16.44 16.57 16.61 16.61 16.61 16.60 16.59 16.59 16.60 16.59 16.59 16.59 16.58 16.48 16.41 16.30 16.25 16.08 15.92
Land-based Wind 104.39 153.08 180.53 252.85 372.00 519.07 516.63 515.21 513.08 510.96 506.43 490.07 489.98 492.59 508.30 528.71 546.93 587.84 691.47 783.99 874.12
CSP 1.24 1.40 4.71 5.13 5.14 5.14 5.13 5.13 5.13 5.13 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.68 9.67 8.73 8.29 11.05 11.07
PV (AC) 1.72 7.88 22.20 41.22 44.47 56.57 67.89 97.54 111.84 128.20 137.08 141.03 151.76 165.43 186.48 213.99 241.05 276.85 325.72 412.86 529.65
Distributed PV (AC) 1.98 6.39 11.76 20.21 32.24 48.52 60.35 72.93 89.07 106.60 125.74 143.25 163.13 183.72 204.68 226.21 244.73 259.46 274.99 288.83 301.43
Storage -0.72 -0.49 -0.11 -0.17 -0.24 -0.30 -0.31 -0.45 -0.62 -0.85 -1.15 -1.25 -1.26 -1.17 -1.23 -1.39 -1.58 -1.78 -1.79 -2.54 -3.53
Curtailment -0.05 -0.37 -0.15 -2.01 -4.87 -12.86 -17.88 -19.86 -17.28 -15.10 -13.79 -10.96 -10.06 -8.41 -8.43 -8.41 -8.48 -9.12 -19.82 -23.97 -32.76
Transmission losses -20.85 -22.62 -21.67 -17.77 -22.45 -25.11 -26.75 -26.78 -26.82 -25.39 -23.51 -22.25 -22.38 -22.54 -23.39 -24.22 -24.89 -26.22 -27.63 -29.11 -29.87
End-use load 3976.09 3909.34 3971.52 3955.55 4021.49 4074.51 4131.71 4206.37 4269.33 4328.89 4379.76 4437.74 4515.13 4602.95 4698.77 4798.25 4887.03 4977.58 5069.95 5164.17 5260.29
Mexican Imports 7.49 6.87 7.49 4.37 9.64 8.79 9.33 3.97 3.91 3.80 4.04 3.97 3.66 3.73 3.73 3.81 3.99 5.79 8.05 6.38 7.53

Renewables

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Distribution of renewables (GW)
tech p1 p2 p3 p4 p5 p6 p7 p8 p9 p10 p11 p12 p13 p14 p15 p16 p17 p18 p19 p20 p21 p22 p23 p24 p25 p26 p27 p28 p29 p30 p31 p32 p33 p34 p35 p36 p37 p38 p39 p40 p41 p42 p43 p44 p45 p46 p47 p48 p49 p50 p51 p52 p53 p54 p55 p56 p58 p59 p60 p61 p62 p63 p64 p65 p66 p67 p68 p69 p70 p71 p72 p73 p74 p75 p76 p77 p78 p79 p80 p81 p82 p83 p84 p85 p86 p87 p88 p89 p90 p91 p92 p93 p94 p95 p96 p97 p98 p99 p100 p101 p102 p103 p104 p105 p106 p107 p108 p109 p110 p111 p112 p113 p114 p115 p116 p117 p118 p119 p120 p121 p122 p123 p124 p125 p126 p127 p129 p130 p131 p132 p133 p134 p135
Hydro 3.48 5.95 2.30 11.26 6.47 0.41 0.25 0.12 9.60 1.23 0.02 0.01 0.82 0.37 1.86 0.63 1.97 0.76 0.07 0.24 0.10 0.17 1.10 1.49 0.08 0.31 0.36 0.20 0.56 1.72 0.04 0.25 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.19 0.42 0.44 0.01 0.30 0.79 0.21 0.08 0.11 0.32 0.04 0.14 0.01 0.00 0.19 0.03 0.26 0.10 0.08 0.09 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.56 1.67 1.48 2.69 0.77 2.28 0.45 0.88 1.44 0.45 0.36 0.00 0.06 0.18 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.24 0.08 0.11 0.00 0.12 0.20 0.05 0.50 0.02 0.74 0.63 0.00 4.87 0.32 0.52 0.28 0.13 0.00 0.68
Geothermal 0.20 0.08 1.78 2.99 0.53 0.01 0.33
Biopower 0.06 0.05 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.36 0.18 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.04 0.10 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.29 0.00 0.28 0.16 0.00 0.28 0.21 0.18 0.10 0.17 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.16 0.07 0.19 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.40
Land-based Wind 0.98 1.08 0.25 0.09 2.55 0.53 0.50 0.16 1.61 2.98 0.29 0.61 0.03 0.21 0.58 0.24 0.83 2.28 0.59 1.09 2.62 0.07 0.22 6.59 0.54 0.00 0.03 0.75 0.01 0.02 1.11 0.11 1.72 1.98 1.13 3.01 2.76 4.84 0.14 1.90 0.20 0.10 0.49 2.33 21.60 0.77 5.72 3.37 3.89 1.42 1.23 6.69 0.59 0.12 0.24 0.00 0.02 7.25 7.23 1.41 7.14 4.00 23.27 0.71 0.18 2.77 3.88 8.12 0.00 0.56 0.08 0.08 0.51 1.19 0.00 0.35 0.49 0.55 1.99 0.59 4.18 0.09 0.27 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.20 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.16 0.06 0.13 0.05 0.00 0.00 2.70 0.25 8.76 0.18 0.86 0.02 0.00 0.64 2.93 0.03 0.01 0.89 0.01 0.30 0.00 0.01 0.15 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 1.28 0.56 0.23 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.62 0.50
CSP 1.79 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00
PV (AC) 0.60 1.29 0.79 1.80 1.48 1.34 1.96 4.96 4.36 16.23 0.54 2.62 2.23 6.83 0.79 0.70 0.08 0.62 0.01 2.16 0.82 11.53 4.20 5.41 1.66 0.27 0.01 0.09 1.46 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.46 0.08 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.09 3.37 5.23 0.33 1.03 0.21 0.64 0.00 0.01 4.13 1.74 2.24 1.97 0.81 1.70 0.00 3.47 0.20 0.00 0.00 1.83 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.90 0.32 0.01 0.08 3.98 0.10 3.64 2.27 3.57 2.96 2.28 7.22 0.76 6.51 24.31 8.42 8.01 1.23 10.53 1.21 10.37 2.06 0.95 0.45 2.62 0.91 4.84 0.79 3.55 0.12 0.00 1.06 1.50 4.32 0.00 1.13 0.79 5.68 0.02 0.05 0.79 1.45 4.98 1.77 2.00 0.93 0.36 8.82 1.01 1.01 0.69

Electricity price

plot of chunk elec_price

Electricity prices (2014$/MWh)
type id 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
price USA 106.16 105.50 110.38 108.43 107.61 106.95 119.57 106.02 106.19 106.43 106.95 107.17 108.19 108.57 109.01 108.87 108.34 109.42 110.92 112.51 113.25
price cen1 159.69 170.33 224.83 196.61 187.95 189.96 596.21 205.67 203.62 204.88 187.91 182.65 180.88 180.95 178.58 176.33 174.16 172.64 172.96 170.85 170.57
price cen2 149.81 148.31 153.95 148.62 146.65 147.45 148.80 145.75 146.18 146.53 147.65 147.05 149.50 150.20 150.30 149.63 149.58 151.12 155.05 159.02 160.54
price cen3 99.60 101.61 101.20 104.74 104.27 103.07 102.54 101.78 101.58 101.30 101.96 102.06 101.59 102.05 102.74 103.18 103.61 105.92 106.82 111.07 112.80
price cen4 84.05 79.36 78.13 82.81 83.24 79.90 84.03 84.98 97.75 101.12 103.77 108.02 117.06 117.52 119.65 118.70 111.05 109.28 109.79 109.82 112.30
price cen5 105.34 105.19 106.25 103.77 104.90 105.69 104.28 103.07 102.22 101.06 100.44 101.24 102.76 104.46 105.45 106.07 106.46 108.33 111.11 113.19 114.32
price cen6 87.81 85.62 86.73 89.30 90.04 89.81 88.26 87.62 86.41 86.83 88.60 89.01 89.54 90.41 91.14 90.78 91.94 92.73 94.55 96.42 97.62
price cen7 90.24 87.68 93.25 92.13 91.20 89.17 87.99 86.90 85.16 86.38 89.95 90.22 89.80 88.81 88.52 88.50 88.88 90.12 89.75 89.75 88.93
price cen8 90.28 92.01 93.92 92.06 89.95 89.08 88.53 87.49 87.19 88.44 89.68 89.53 89.63 89.75 90.79 91.08 91.13 93.40 95.58 96.09 96.43
price cen9 124.47 121.24 132.72 126.99 124.92 124.47 123.92 124.10 123.20 122.83 123.05 122.35 121.98 121.89 121.71 121.09 119.98 119.89 121.28 122.23 122.33
comp_p USA 106.16 94.04 106.93 95.32 97.35 103.00 101.69 108.68 112.49 122.04 121.92 119.99 121.29 122.30 122.88 123.38 124.31 124.91 127.66 129.19 129.76
comp_p cen1 159.69 141.14 164.66 147.89 151.94 175.35 160.85 173.09 174.79 177.61 180.03 177.78 178.58 180.11 180.26 180.19 180.84 182.36 184.49 185.78 187.40
comp_p cen2 149.81 130.96 143.36 136.69 138.09 147.83 141.83 153.28 158.36 164.39 164.43 161.45 163.07 164.42 164.98 165.17 166.01 167.78 170.35 172.06 173.34
comp_p cen3 99.60 89.09 98.56 96.91 97.69 98.78 100.34 106.06 111.71 124.40 124.26 122.00 123.83 124.94 125.70 126.32 127.55 128.96 131.00 132.45 132.78
comp_p cen4 84.05 71.83 81.45 78.09 79.53 80.68 81.75 84.88 90.25 105.18 105.59 103.93 105.77 106.89 107.32 107.77 108.45 109.64 111.42 112.53 112.92
comp_p cen5 105.34 88.48 93.08 89.58 91.33 93.22 93.12 97.21 101.37 115.71 115.20 113.21 114.37 115.51 116.14 116.50 117.59 119.07 121.63 122.77 123.53
comp_p cen6 87.81 75.58 79.71 76.79 79.58 84.21 80.32 83.21 86.71 99.93 99.53 97.86 98.98 100.00 100.65 101.26 102.65 103.95 106.40 107.83 108.34
comp_p cen7 90.24 93.62 90.12 79.00 82.36 88.53 88.97 96.28 96.17 104.29 103.78 102.56 103.14 103.88 103.99 104.66 105.62 102.97 107.32 109.89 110.54
comp_p cen8 90.28 77.24 83.65 80.67 82.44 85.85 87.66 97.87 105.90 107.52 106.50 105.26 107.03 107.77 108.83 109.56 110.08 111.20 113.45 114.46 115.07
comp_p cen9 124.47 108.14 175.36 111.07 113.57 128.90 125.18 137.51 139.51 141.42 142.36 140.18 141.45 142.20 143.05 143.69 144.29 144.45 147.81 149.47 149.25

Total cost

plot of chunk total-cost

Total cost by category (Billion 2014$)
categories 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
Conventional Capital 1.77 52.46 52.46 20.56 20.56 44.96 44.96 19.23 19.23 10.78 10.78 0.50 0.50 5.55 5.55 15.62 15.62 25.71 25.71 21.72 21.72 23.11 23.11 22.46 22.46 19.23 19.23 15.20 15.20 20.60 20.60 22.46 22.46 32.52 32.52 33.71 33.71 26.77 26.77
Conventional O&M 37.58 37.48 37.38 37.11 36.83 37.99 39.15 38.56 37.97 37.55 37.12 36.71 36.30 36.18 36.06 35.97 35.88 35.80 35.71 35.47 35.23 35.08 34.94 34.49 34.04 33.84 33.63 33.49 33.36 33.39 33.43 33.22 33.02 32.66 32.29 31.48 30.67 29.94 29.22 28.65 28.09
Conventional Fuel 93.07 84.00 74.93 80.95 86.96 78.66 70.36 71.18 72.00 71.42 70.84 71.63 72.43 73.10 73.78 74.66 75.54 75.67 75.79 76.30 76.80 78.59 80.38 83.43 86.48 89.22 91.96 94.54 97.11 98.63 100.16 102.72 105.28 108.14 111.01 114.48 117.96 120.77 123.58 123.45 123.32
Renewable Capital 44.84 44.84 22.31 22.31 31.20 31.20 32.07 32.07 42.27 42.27 5.51 5.51 11.72 11.72 5.73 5.73 6.32 6.32 7.22 7.22 5.98 5.98 11.14 11.14 15.85 15.85 14.77 14.77 26.46 26.46 35.76 35.76 51.08 51.08 42.19 42.19 47.98 47.98 57.57 57.57
Renewable O&M 6.94 7.57 8.21 8.43 8.66 9.23 9.81 10.53 11.25 12.18 13.10 13.13 13.15 13.18 13.20 13.17 13.14 13.13 13.12 13.08 13.04 12.78 12.52 12.37 12.22 12.05 11.87 11.96 12.06 12.12 12.19 12.23 12.28 12.38 12.49 13.18 13.88 14.59 15.31 16.09 16.88
Renewable Fuel 0.89 0.86 0.84 0.91 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87
Storage Capital 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.14 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08
Storage O&M 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32
All Transmission 0.13 3.29 3.29 2.96 2.96 3.62 3.62 2.00 2.00 4.33 4.33 1.73 1.73 2.40 2.40 1.43 1.43 0.57 0.57 0.45 0.45 0.25 0.25 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.70 0.70 0.91 0.91 1.18 1.18 1.39 1.39 3.29 3.29 4.37 4.37 4.72 4.72
Water 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TOTAL 140.68 230.81 222.24 173.54 179.58 206.93 200.35 174.80 175.73 179.74 179.67 129.95 130.37 138.36 138.93 137.74 138.49 148.40 148.42 159.51 159.73 155.59 156.97 166.18 168.64 175.07 177.43 175.90 178.43 187.95 189.57 206.92 209.32 229.30 231.90 238.47 241.84 252.65 255.45 258.53 258.62

plot of chunk PV-total-cost

Present value of total cost (Billion 2014$)
categories Cost
Conventional Capital 345.32
Conventional O&M 789.96
Conventional Fuel 1908.13
Renewable Capital 382.26
Renewable O&M 280.96
Renewable Fuel 20.24
Storage Capital 0.44
Storage O&M 6.91
All Transmission 34.45
Water 0.01
TOTAL 3768.68

Variability calculations

Capacity value

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Forecast error

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Curtailment

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Emissions

plot of chunk emissions

Emissions
type 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
SO2 (Million short tons) 5.04 3.51 3.59 0.98 1.09 1.18 1.19 1.29 1.28 1.24 1.17 1.16 1.14 1.14 1.11 1.10 1.06 1.00 0.85 0.74 0.65
NOx (Million short tons) 2.08 1.57 1.57 1.04 1.17 1.23 1.26 1.36 1.36 1.33 1.30 1.30 1.32 1.32 1.31 1.29 1.27 1.19 1.08 0.96 0.87
Hg (short tons) 46.88 35.63 37.53 2.53 2.91 3.12 3.19 3.44 3.40 3.33 3.27 3.27 3.28 3.29 3.23 3.19 3.11 2.96 2.67 2.30 2.00
CO2 (Billion metric tons) 2.28 1.93 2.01 1.66 1.73 1.73 1.76 1.85 1.85 1.83 1.82 1.85 1.91 1.96 1.98 1.99 2.00 1.97 1.92 1.81 1.70

Water

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Water Withdrawals (billion gallons)
tech 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
Nuclear 16512.59 16609.22 15318.28 15377.23 14543.61 14193.26 14193.26 14193.26 14193.26 14193.26 13928.21 13274.73 9725.15 7308.30 5559.64 5210.87 4708.64 3804.07 1205.85 875.52 278.05
Coal Old Unscrubbed 13096.89 8137.41 8667.86 706.58 898.07 953.49 757.12 845.16 851.94 728.81 569.51 556.64 419.82 394.27 380.48 342.83 297.27 182.47 7.52 7.47 7.27
Coal Old Scrubbed 13879.51 10680.84 11786.39 11582.57 13626.12 14976.76 15320.04 16569.78 16431.08 16325.91 15784.98 15679.68 15477.29 15114.87 14835.90 14275.91 13476.89 11688.18 9130.95 6148.82 4669.90
Cofire Old 31.35 0.85 57.52 19.77 17.28 19.89 18.22 24.16 26.15 26.54 27.44 32.83 26.26 27.02 28.22 1.35 1.40 1.44 1.42 1.01 1.01
Cofire New 21.91 3.20 44.76 42.22 42.22 42.22 42.22 42.22 42.22 42.22 42.22 42.22 42.22 42.22 42.22 42.22 42.22 42.22 42.22 42.22 42.22
Coal-New 475.92 416.96 513.00 509.25 509.52 509.72 509.74 509.73 509.59 509.59 509.48 509.48 506.00 502.36 502.36 495.26 492.09 492.09 492.09 492.08 491.95
Coal-IGCC 15.87 0.00 95.71 95.71 95.71 95.71 95.71 95.71 95.71 95.71 95.71 95.71 95.71 95.71 95.71 95.71 95.71 95.71 95.71 95.71 95.71
Coal-CCS 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.93 5.17 5.17 5.17 5.17 5.17 5.17 5.17 5.17 5.17 5.17 5.17 5.17 5.17 5.17 5.17 5.17 5.17
Oil-Gas-Steam 366.97 159.87 226.32 165.71 182.05 122.51 56.30 32.60 59.59 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas-CC 1388.53 1843.56 1990.85 2406.74 1967.32 1736.73 1767.30 1743.02 1756.74 1759.72 1564.72 1515.06 1542.72 1473.77 1477.50 1461.17 1399.09 1375.78 1323.82 1304.74 1261.63
Gas-CT 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Hydro 0.27 0.30 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
Geothermal 0.74 0.78 0.78 0.80 0.85 0.92 0.93 1.03 1.07 1.16 1.22 1.28 1.30 1.37 1.39 1.41 1.41 1.45 1.47 1.58 1.76
Biopower 130.49 123.45 144.17 149.31 149.01 157.24 163.57 158.51 162.36 162.58 163.46 162.30 162.27 161.75 162.27 162.25 161.70 161.70 161.71 161.71 163.61
Landfill-gas 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
CSP 0.98 1.10 2.43 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.48 4.15 4.14 6.02 6.04
Distributed PV (AC) 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.28 0.29 0.31
TOTAL 45922.03 37977.57 38848.39 31062.57 32039.71 32816.41 32932.39 34223.17 34137.71 33853.59 32698.16 31881.15 28009.97 25132.91 23096.97 22100.28 20687.64 17855.00 12472.66 9142.66 7024.96
Water Consumption (billion gallons)
tech 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
Nuclear 392.07 394.84 389.21 395.50 397.56 393.20 393.20 393.20 393.20 393.20 384.24 362.20 327.67 300.25 274.12 262.13 231.16 197.22 130.97 66.62 40.46
Coal Old Unscrubbed 234.10 160.02 144.85 16.45 20.71 21.36 17.89 19.66 19.48 17.58 12.90 12.57 9.71 9.66 8.34 8.05 7.63 6.88 4.47 4.44 4.35
Coal Old Scrubbed 664.94 542.91 568.93 472.87 552.12 595.75 619.52 674.11 666.28 650.52 645.54 648.66 657.86 665.18 653.70 649.76 635.95 609.69 557.73 478.76 405.34
Cofire Old 1.79 0.54 1.94 0.71 0.84 0.95 0.84 1.09 0.99 0.95 0.96 1.03 1.09 1.12 1.11 0.98 1.01 1.05 1.03 0.77 0.77
Cofire New 0.19 0.03 2.54 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52
Coal-New 60.81 64.06 85.01 84.68 84.91 85.06 85.08 85.07 84.96 84.96 84.95 84.95 84.94 84.92 84.92 84.79 84.70 84.69 84.69 84.69 84.58
Coal-IGCC 0.79 0.00 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19
Coal-CCS 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.96 3.89 3.89 3.89 3.89 3.89 3.89 3.89 3.89 3.89 3.89 3.89 3.89 3.89 3.89 3.89 3.89 3.89
Oil-Gas-Steam 5.77 3.04 3.03 2.44 2.02 0.85 0.40 0.25 0.75 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas-CC 155.17 203.95 194.50 256.09 216.03 179.14 180.20 165.94 174.19 185.31 200.19 218.77 248.32 272.97 298.58 312.88 336.37 363.63 400.91 434.72 445.07
Gas-CT 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Hydro 0.27 0.30 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
Geothermal 0.74 0.78 0.78 0.80 0.85 0.92 0.93 1.03 1.07 1.16 1.22 1.28 1.30 1.37 1.39 1.41 1.41 1.45 1.47 1.58 1.76
Biopower 12.25 11.98 13.21 13.24 13.46 14.13 14.55 14.54 14.64 14.70 14.73 14.73 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.72 14.71 14.71 14.72 14.72 14.70
Landfill-gas 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
CSP 0.98 1.10 2.43 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.48 4.15 4.14 6.02 6.04
Distributed PV (AC) 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.28 0.29 0.31
TOTAL 1529.89 1383.59 1407.92 1252.21 1298.88 1301.75 1323.01 1365.32 1365.99 1358.88 1358.37 1357.85 1359.31 1363.91 1350.63 1348.47 1326.58 1291.64 1208.33 1100.54 1011.29
New Water Access Purchases (billion gallons)
category 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
Appropriated Fresh Surface Water 0.00 0.04 18.93 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.72 0.00 0.00 2.48 0.63 0.05 0.00
Brackish Groundwater 0.00 0.00 10.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.83
Potable Groundwater 0.30 3.93 10.20 1.44 3.69 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.06 3.18 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.28 0.94 2.29 6.09 7.10 3.17
Retired Access 1.58 9.20 91.12 167.53 0.04 55.58 0.04 0.14 4.64 16.05 24.91 5.99 5.69 15.73 7.20 4.94 9.87 12.71 21.73 19.84 15.66
Unappropriated Fresh Surface Water 4.11 633.95 989.94 665.45 201.52 83.50 0.03 0.04 0.13 18.37 35.92 39.02 36.11 35.64 24.48 28.82 40.16 43.03 55.33 53.39 36.00
Wastewater Treatment Effluent 0.00 0.64 2.22 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.95 1.29 1.39 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.46 1.23 1.58
TOTAL 6.00 647.75 1122.79 836.07 205.25 139.09 0.08 0.20 4.81 34.47 61.20 49.13 43.13 52.79 32.87 34.04 50.96 60.52 84.25 81.61 57.24

Transmission

plot of chunk transmissionplot of chunk transmissionplot of chunk transmission

Cumulative transmission
type 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
AC_GW 529.00 541.40 551.68 555.33 555.42 558.80 566.10 578.52 589.39 590.24 590.54 590.84 591.95 592.37 593.72 596.07 598.32 602.04 605.15 612.73 621.11
AC_GWmi 82476.75 84369.88 86026.15 86579.55 86590.08 87262.52 88691.06 90586.98 92022.12 92099.43 92139.14 92178.33 92335.17 92390.83 92585.71 92933.07 93211.33 93761.01 94237.49 95318.50 96594.40
DC_GW 7.30 7.30 8.06 8.06 8.37 11.91 11.91 11.96 12.19 12.41 12.46 12.93 13.09 13.42 13.61 13.71 14.65 15.22 17.81 18.13 18.13
DC_GWmi 3048.28 3048.28 3141.19 3141.19 3203.11 3890.53 3890.53 3896.20 3939.61 3973.58 3979.68 4040.07 4067.38 4128.42 4151.82 4163.79 4362.35 4431.01 4838.51 4915.82 4915.82
Cumulative Intra-BA Transmission (MW-mi)
Type 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
Onshore wind 1137763.06 1735150.53 1965821.82 2672827.29 3359628.48 4539215.97 4575971.26 4605835.46 4605835.46 4605835.46 4616933.20 4619252.32 4627483.54 4639895.41 4650693.74 4650904.24 4734657.00 4866837.15 5546298.84 6203928.15 6681962.57
Offshore wind 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total wind 1137763.06 1735150.53 1965821.82 2672827.29 3359628.48 4539215.97 4575971.26 4605835.46 4605835.46 4605835.46 4616933.20 4619252.32 4627483.54 4639895.41 4650693.74 4650904.24 4734657.00 4866837.15 5546298.84 6203928.15 6681962.57
CSP 11666.59 17968.51
UPV 6094.36 49839.57 321732.83 647249.19 657250.27 693847.47 734401.05 798721.15 860535.22 929056.67 984848.40 1025797.89 1116775.01 1209275.24 1344416.21 1511873.72 1737675.45 2187060.53 2753397.73 3142279.62 3572971.10
DUPV 2108.09 8417.99 10247.72 11908.08 12220.45 15852.39 30850.39 72906.54 78387.38 80132.56 81386.08 81426.30 81583.89 83006.29 90749.93 100882.06 104300.80 142026.04 204839.37 265230.08 415898.36

Coal and Gas

plot of chunk fuelplot of chunk fuel

Coal and gas usage/price
type 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
Coal Price 2.46 2.43 2.35 2.10 2.19 2.28 2.28 2.29 2.29 2.27 2.25 2.27 2.29 2.31 2.34 2.37 2.37 2.38 2.38 2.37 2.37
Coal Usage (Quads) 20.21 15.49 16.53 11.54 13.25 14.19 14.53 15.67 15.51 15.19 14.91 14.95 15.00 15.04 14.78 14.60 14.25 13.53 12.25 10.54 9.17
Gas Price 5.42 3.67 5.21 3.94 4.30 4.63 4.69 4.85 4.90 4.85 4.88 4.95 5.09 5.22 5.33 5.37 5.57 5.79 6.08 6.36 6.44
Gas Price-Weighted 5.42 3.67 5.21 3.94 4.30 4.63 4.69 4.85 4.90 4.85 4.88 4.95 5.09 5.22 5.33 5.37 5.57 5.79 6.08 6.36 6.44
Gas Usage (Quads) 6.62 8.40 8.02 10.54 8.74 7.18 7.18 6.64 6.93 7.22 7.54 8.11 9.10 9.91 10.78 11.26 12.02 12.92 14.15 15.26 15.60

Scenario parameters

Type Switch Value
Excel Battery Storage Inputs ReEDS 2016 ER Battery Costs
Coal Prices AEO2016 Reference
Conventional Generation AEO 2016 w Custom OM
CSP Inputs B&V
CSP With Storage Inputs ATB 2016 Mid
Demand Growth Rate AEO 2016 Reference Case
Geothermal cost reduction No reduction
Geothermal Supply Curves Reference
Hydro Cost multiplier BAU
Hydro Financial Multiplier Adjustment 1
Hydro Supply Curve Reference
Natural Gas Prices AEO 2016 Reference
Nuclear Prices AEO 2016
Regional capital cost multipliers RWBeck
Social Cost of Carbon Discount Rate 0.03 Avg
Thermal Cooling Water Rates National Avg
UPV Inputs ATB 2016 Mid
GAMS AB32_CO2_IMPORT_INT_SWITCH STATE
AB32_switch ON
AccCoalRetireSwitch OFF
Bioswitch ON
CAESSwitch ON
CAIRCSAPRswitch REGIONAL
CanadaSwitch ON
CCSRetroSwitch ON
CCSswitch ON
CESswitch OFF
CIRASwitch OFF
CO2Switch OFF
CPP_COOP_GRP_SWITCH NATIONAL
CPP_SWITCH OFF
CSAPRStateTradeswitch EXPLICIT
CSPswitch ON
deepEGSSwitch ON
DElasticitySwitch OFF
DemandResponseSwitch OFF
dGEOCase OFF
DistPVswitch ATB2016Mid
dSolarCurtSwitch OFF
dSolarElecPriceSwitch dSolar
dSolarSwitch OFF
EfficiencySwitch OFF
EGSWaterRestrictionSwitch OFF
ElasticitySwitch OFF
ForceRetSwitch ON
Geoswitch ON
GeothermalCaseSwitch BAU_Barriers
HydSwitch ON
Interconnect US
InterruptSwitch OFF
LearningSwitch OFF
LowCoolLoadSwitch OFF
MATSswitch ON
MHKWaveSwitch OFF
NEMS_PHEVSwitch OFF
NFEGSSwitch ON
NGRegionalSupplyCurveSwitch ON
NGSeasonalPriceAdjustorSwitch ON
NuclearSwitch ON
NucRetSwitch ON
OneHourBatSwitch OFF
PHEVFullOptimalSwitch OFF
PHEVscenario MedAggressiveRef
PHEVswitch OFF
ReducedResourceSwitch OFF
RestrictedWaterSwitch OFF
RGGI_Switch ON
RPSSwitch OFF
RWGTMSwitch OFF
shallowEGSSwitch ON
st_RPS_Hydro_Elig_Switch OFF
st_RPS_Incent_Switch ON
StorageSwitch ON
ThermalStorageSwitch OFF
TransmissionHighCostSwitch OFF
TransmissionSwitch ANGLE
UndiscGeoSwitch ON
UPVSwitch ON
VRRE_Reg_Res_Switch OFF
WaterAccessSwitch ON
WaterQtySwitch NONE
WindCaseSwitch ATB_Wind_Median_Cost_Reduction
WindOFDswitch ON
WindSwitch ON